It was 60 days ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as his coach admonished him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, the question was if Rogers' form were a sign or the source for the side's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, however, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. After Rogers swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore Villa's lead, Emery discarded his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Title Contenders?
That’s an exceptionally difficult question to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, while the positive results have stacked up.
As per the data, on just two occasions has the side posted an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a team which has strung together 10 in a row, the Villans look weirdly vulnerable – but at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with two precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and again versus United.
The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, arced precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opponents managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling his shots into the top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Could it be a different scenario whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.
- The main striker might resume scoring again.
- The winger might become the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the possibility of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned the young forward now would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.
The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it seems so surreal. When Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended conducting the cheers, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
