A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
